causal significance
CSCE: Boosting LLM Reasoning by Simultaneous Enhancing of Casual Significance and Consistency
Wang, Kangsheng, Zhang, Xiao, Guo, Zizheng, Hu, Tianyu, Ma, Huimin
Chain-based reasoning methods like chain of thought (CoT) play a rising role in solving reasoning tasks for large language models (LLMs). However, the causal illusions between \textit{a step of reasoning} and \textit{corresponding state transitions} are becoming a significant obstacle to advancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities, especially in long-range reasoning tasks. This paper proposes a non-chain-based reasoning framework for simultaneous consideration of causal significance and consistency, i.e., the Causal Significance and Consistency Enhancer (CSCE). We customize LLM's loss function utilizing treatment effect assessments to enhance its reasoning ability from two aspects: causal significance and consistency. This ensures that the model captures essential causal relationships and maintains robust and consistent performance across various scenarios. Additionally, we transform the reasoning process from the cascading multiple one-step reasoning commonly used in Chain-Based methods, like CoT, to a causal-enhanced method that outputs the entire reasoning process in one go, further improving the model's reasoning efficiency. Extensive experiments show that our method improves both the reasoning success rate and speed. These improvements further demonstrate that non-chain-based methods can also aid LLMs in completing reasoning tasks.
Causal Discovery with Stage Variables for Health Time Series
Srikishan, Bharat, Kleinberg, Samantha
Using observational data to learn causal relationships is essential when randomized experiments are not possible, such as in healthcare. Discovering causal relationships in time-series health data is even more challenging when relationships change over the course of a disease, such as medications that are most effective early on or for individuals with severe disease. Stage variables such as weeks of pregnancy, disease stages, or biomarkers like HbA1c, can influence what causal relationships are true for a patient. However, causal inference within each stage is often not possible due to limited amounts of data, and combining all data risks incorrect or missed inferences. To address this, we propose Causal Discovery with Stage Variables (CDSV), which uses stage variables to reweight data from multiple time-series while accounting for different causal relationships in each stage. In simulated data, CDSV discovers more causes with fewer false discoveries compared to baselines, in eICU it has a lower FDR than baselines, and in MIMIC-III it discovers more clinically relevant causes of high blood pressure.